{"id":19670,"date":"2017-01-20T17:04:06","date_gmt":"2017-01-20T17:04:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jomec.co.uk\/intercardiff\/?p=19670"},"modified":"2017-01-20T17:04:06","modified_gmt":"2017-01-20T17:04:06","slug":"through-the-looking-glass-perspectives-on-ukips-post-brexit-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/politics-social-justice\/through-the-looking-glass-perspectives-on-ukips-post-brexit-future","title":{"rendered":"Through the Looking Glass: Perspectives on UKIP\u2019s post-Brexit Future"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In politics nothing is certain and no prediction is beyond skepticism. Following the events of 2016 this is truer than ever. In order to gain some insights into UKIP and its future, I interviewed three individuals, all of whom boasted deep insight and different perspectives.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19675\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19675\" style=\"width: 625px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19675\" src=\"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2017\/01\/Alan-Preest-shopped-625x470.jpg\" alt=\"Cllr Alan Preest\" width=\"625\" height=\"470\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19675\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19675\" src=\"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2017\/01\/Alan-Preest-shopped-625x470.jpg\" alt=\"Cllr Alan Preest\" width=\"625\" height=\"470\" \/><\/noscript> Cllr Alan Preest<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The accomplishment of UKIP\u2019s central purpose has seen many of its members, particularly those who originally defected from the Conservative party, defect to the Tories. One example of this is Cllr Alan Preest from Gloustershire who defected to the Tories in July last year after four years with UKIP. He stated at the time that \u201cWith the referendum out of the way, UKIP doesn&#8217;t really have a point any more.\u201d When asked to elaborate on this comment, he said that he stood by his original comments. \u201cYou got to look at it; it was always the case that UKIP only had one real objective that was to get us out of Europe. There was a lot of other manifesto and policy in there, but there was never really any joined up thinking.\u201d He went on to describe a state of affairs during his time as a UKIP councillor where he and his fellow UKIP councillors were largely left to their own initiative with only vague directives from UKIP\u2019s higher echelons on policy issues.<\/p>\n<p>Cllr Preest went on to claim that UKIP would remain an influential force within British politics, namely as a watchdog to ensure proper delivery of Brexit, a somewhat contradictory statement given his earlier comments on UKIP\u2019s post-referendum crisis of relevancy. He did however predict a steady decline for UKIP going forward, believing that a shift towards local, grassroots politics was UKIP\u2019s best hope for survival.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19677\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19677\" style=\"width: 625px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19677\" src=\"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2017\/01\/Nathan_Gill_AM-shopped-625x470.jpg\" alt=\"Nathan Gill AM\" width=\"625\" height=\"470\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19677\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19677\" src=\"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2017\/01\/Nathan_Gill_AM-shopped-625x470.jpg\" alt=\"Nathan Gill AM\" width=\"625\" height=\"470\" \/><\/noscript> Nathan Gill AM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A more optimistic vision of UKIP\u2019s future was found through a conversation with Nathan Gill AM, the former leader of UKIP in Wales. When presented with Cllr Preest\u2019s claims that UKIP lacked coherent policies other than opposition to EU membership, he conceded that opposition to EU membership was the primary driver of membership \u201cin the early days\u201d and how \u201cwe didn\u2019t really care what the manifestos were about\u201d but went on to claim that in later years, more people joined UKIP on other issues.<\/p>\n<p>When asked about UKIP\u2019s direction following the UK ultimately leaving the EU, Gill alluded to a vacuum of power in British politics left by the declining Labour party and general political left, a vacuum that could be filled by a libertarian UKIP party. He also emphasized UKIP\u2019s commitment to being a political party, not just a political movement or lobby group. \u201cI think the threat of taking away people\u2019s elected positions makes people do things, if your just there to push them in the right direction, they won\u2019t go in that direction\u201d. He backed this statement up with the commonly held belief that David Cameron promised the EU referendum in response to UKIP\u2019s growing popularity running up to the 2015 general election.<\/p>\n<p>On the hot topic of Nigel Farage\u2019s leadership and UKIP\u2019s new leader Paul Nuttall, Gill described succeeding Nigel Farage as \u201cthe hardest job in politics\u201d and expressed a belief that UKIP should remain \u2018the party of Nigel Farage\u2019. He remained cautious regarding the leadership of Nuttall stating that \u201che is prepared in his way and it\u2019s a different style and he is a different man and he is different look\u201d but emphasized that not enough time has passed to properly gauge how the public will receive him.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding UKIP\u2019s electoral future, Gill emphasized that a Labour party that continues to be weak and divided does provide opportunity for UKIP to gain ground, but also recognized that the widely spread, but thin support for UKIP has and will punish UKIP electorally under \u2018First past the post\u2019. Elaborating on this, Gill suggested a new policy for UKIP: \u201cWe should focus on electoral reform, some form of proportional representation; you\u2019ve got to give people a reason to go to the ballot box\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19680\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19680\" style=\"width: 625px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19680\" src=\"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2017\/01\/rob-ford-shopped-625x470.jpg\" alt=\"Professor Robert Ford\" width=\"625\" height=\"470\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19680\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19680\" src=\"https:\/\/cardiffjournalism.co.uk\/intercardiff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2017\/01\/rob-ford-shopped-625x470.jpg\" alt=\"Professor Robert Ford\" width=\"625\" height=\"470\" \/><\/noscript> Professor Robert Ford<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>To round off a look into the future of UKIP it is also worth getting an expert on the subject\u2019s two cents, in this case Professor Robert Ford of Manchester University, someone who has written extensively on UKIP and the wider European populist right.<\/p>\n<p>To begin, he downplayed somewhat the importance of Nigel Farage to UKIP. He acknowledged the value of Farage\u2019s \u201chigh media profile\u201d and his \u201cemollient\u201d character, allow UKIP to remain in the news without coming across as himself (and by extension his party) openly bigoted. He also pointed to the chaos within UKIP since Farage left as evidence of his talent at keeping the fractious party in line. Ultimately however, Professor Ford did not consider him \u201cthe primary reason voters attached themselves to UKIP\u201d; referencing shifts in public opinion on immigration and mainstream parties would have encouraged such a political drift even without Farage.<\/p>\n<p>On the subject of UKIP\u2019s \u2018raison d&#8217;etre\u2019 Professor Ford predicted a likely shift towards greater English nationalism and the spirit of \u201cBrexit Betrayal, holding the government\u2019s feet to the fire, making sure the voters get what they voted for\u201d. He pointed out however that the success of this shift is largely out of the control of UKIP and indeed, given Theresa May\u2019s pushing for \u2018hard Brexit\u2019, the spectre of \u2018Brexit Betrayal\u2019 will likely be of little use to UKIP.<\/p>\n<p>In electoral matters, Professor Ford began by emphasizing the importance of the next round of local and by-elections. Positive results could create a virtuous circle of increased morale, positive media cover and party stabilization. Negative results could see a vicious cycle with the media pronouncing the death of UKIP and members fleeing the party. He also agreed with Nathan Gill on UKIP\u2019s difficult position with regards to first past the post, adding that UKIP has been \u201cpoor at maximizing council seats in areas where they have potential for Westminster seats\u201d due to a \u201clack of organizational capacity and attention span\u201d. He soundly dismissed the idea of UKIP campaigning for election reform as a solution however. \u201cThat kind of \u2018oh I\u2019d prefer it if we changed the rules that benefitted my party\u2019 wishful thinking has never served any party well\u201d, pointing out that even the Liberal Democrats, the party most likely to rally support for such a move, failed to do so in the past.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>UKIP is not in for an easy ride. It is suffering an existential crisis, public support has slumped and Nigel Farage\u2019s departure has seen chaos return to the party, but announcing the death of UKIP is a premature move.<\/p>\n<p>Love them or loath them, there is a strong argument to be made that UKIP brought about the most earth-shaking event in the UK\u2019s recent political history, Brexit. The most recent <a href=\"http:\/\/ukpollingreport.co.uk\/\">YouGov\/Times poll<\/a> also still places UKIP as the third party of British politics at 13% and Britain is, for the moment still within the EU, facing a grueling march towards leaving it. UKIP\u2019s favorite topic isn\u2019t going away just yet.<\/p>\n<p>In the coming months we may discover that despite that it\u2019s leaders will undoubtedly say, UKIP has breathed it\u2019s last with its Brexit triumph.<\/p>\n<p>Alternatively, UKIP may find that in our new age of politics, an age of chaos, uncertainly, impossibility and \u2018post-truth\u2019, UKIP could come into its own in a whole new way. Chaos after all can be either a pit&#8230; or a ladder&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UKIP has always been the Party of Brexit. With our imminent withdrawal from the EU, where does that leave the party?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":411,"featured_media":19702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-19670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics-social-justice"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Through the Looking Glass: Perspectives on UKIP\u2019s post-Brexit Future - InterCardiff<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Through the Looking Glass: Perspectives on UKIP\u2019s post-Brexit Future - InterCardiff\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"UKIP has always been the Party of Brexit. 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