SkyBet have Wales as favourites for the Wooden Spoon but it’s far from clear cut
WALES seemingly need to shock the rugby world on the final game day of the 2025 Six Nations to avoid a last-placed finish for the second year in a row.
On paper, Wales look odds-on for a second straight wooden spoon, but the reality is far more complex.
Here we look at the ways Wales can finish a brutal tournament on a positive note.
Beat England and win
The simplest route to avoiding the wooden spoon.
If Wales beat England it is possible for them to score a maximum of five points – four points for a win and one bonus point for scoring four tries. With Italyy unlikely to beat title-chasin Ireland that would see Wales finihing on either seven or eight points, comfortably ahead on Italy, currently on four points.
But what if Wales lose?
Each team in this year’s contest still has it all to play because of the bonus point system.
There are two ways to earn a bonus point:
- Try-scoring bonus point: score four or more tries in one match
- Losing bonus point: lose by fewer than seven points
So, even if Wales were to lose against England they could still earn two bonus points and move above Italy in the table.
It is, of course, possible for Italy – currently second from bottom in the table – to score two bonus points against Ireland. But their form in this tournament makes it unlikely against an Ireland team which will be chasing a win and a try-scoring bonus point (and crossed fingers) if they are to win another Six Nations title.
Italy’s margin of defeat has not been within the required seven points in this year’s tournament. They lost by 23 points to England, 49 points to France and 12 to Scotland.
They haven’t scored four tries in one game at this tournament and even in victory against Wales Italy scored just one try.
The four-point tie
Defeat without a bonus point seems likely for the Azzurri, meaning they would finish on four points in the table.
That may leave Wales only needingone bonus point from their game against England in Cardiff on Saturday (March 15). Based on Wales’ form in this tournament, that is very possible.
Last weekend at Murrayfield, Wales lost but earned two bonus points. They put four tries (and hotly-debated disallowed fifth) past the Scots to earn a try-scoring bonus point. Wales also finished the game with a six-point margin of defeat, earning a losing bonus point.
It pushed their tally of match points this campaign to three, despite not winning any matches. Their previous bonus point was earned by finishing within seven points of Italy despite defeat.
If Wales and Italy finish level on four match points Wales would likely jump out of last place on points difference.
This is where it could get really complicated
Italy lead Wales in the table by one point, but Wales have the advantage of a better points difference.
If Wales and Italy finish the tournament level on match points awarded, Wales are likely to finish second bottom on points difference (points scored V points conceded during games).
Italy’s PD is currently -77, while Wales are 12 points better off with -65.
That means that if Italy lose to Ireland and earn no bonus points, and Wales lose to England within the seven point margin of defeat required for a losing bonus point, Italy cannot make up that points differential.
However, in the unlikely event that Wales score four tries to earn a bonus point – moving them level on four points with Italy – but lose the game by more than the seven points required for a losing bonus point, then they need to lose by 13 points less than Italy lose to Ireland. Yes, it’s unlikely. But hey, this is sport. And this is Wales.
Wales’ dynamic has changed
Under Matt Sherratt, Wales have looked like a new team.
Against both Ireland and Scotland they looked threatening and perhaps on another day could have taken a win in either one of those games.
Wales will also see this as their best opportunity yet to snap that 16-game losing streak and end their 525-day winless run.
Wales have already suffered two early injury blows as wingers Tom Rogers and Josh Adams both out of the squad.
But in a sold-out Principality Stadium, with the roof closed, Wales will have a very loud crowd on their side and much less pressure.
The Wales players and fans will be well aware of the fact that England are still in with a realistic chance of taking their first title since 2020.
Race for the title
At the top of the table, four teams theoretically have a chance to take home the title on Super Saturday.
France currently lead the way by a single point and, after upsetting Ireland last weekend in Dublin, face Scotland in the Stade de France for their final game of the tournament.
On paper this should be an easy run in for Les Bleus, however they face a very talented Scotland side and will be missing the biggest star in men’s rugby, Antoine Dupont.
“Rupture of the cruciate ligaments. This is the beginning of a new challenge, I’ll see you in a few months on the field,” said Dupont on his Instagram.
For England to win the tournament they must beat Wales with a try-scoring bonus point but, as mentioned earlier, this will prove to be a very tough task.
Ireland looked like the favourites all tournament until their loss last weekend. Facing Italy for their final game, the Irish need a win with a bonus point in order to three-peat as champions.
Finally, Scotland face an uphill fight but are on the brink of matching or even beating their best ever result, third, since the competition became the Six Nations in 1999.
Despite all the possible outcomes this Saturday, the only thing Wales will care about will be breaking their losing streak, but above all else, making sure England have no chance to win the title.
